Labor Conflicts in Russia in 2025: Analysis of the Past and Future Predictions

The Labor Conflict Monitoring Center of the St. Petersburg Humanitarian University of Trade Unions (SPbGUP), under the leadership of Evgeny Makarov, Deputy Chairman of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia (FNPR), has traditionally presented an analysis of the socio-labor situation in the country, the development and course of labor conflicts in the past year.

Analysis of the development of socio-labor relations in the Russian Federation in 2025 based on the monitoring of socio-labor conflicts

Excerpts from the analytical bulletin prepared by the Scientific and Monitoring Center (Saint Petersburg)
 
Introduction
In the final bulletin for 2025, the analysis of the socio-labor situation and the development of STCs was conducted in the retrospective of a four-year period (2022-2025). Since February 2022, the country's economy has been functioning and developing under the conditions of readjustment due to the special military operation of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. During this time, a significant number of illegal sanctions against Russia have been imposed by unfriendly states, which has required changes in the system of foreign economic relations with foreign partners and the solution of import substitution tasks. The specific development of the economy during this period, as well as the exacerbation of demographic problems, has led to a shortage of qualified workers and engineers, primarily in the system-forming industries, which has had a secondary impact on the formation of conflict potential in the socio-labor sphere and the development of labor relations, which have simultaneously undergone significant transformations due to the increased use of new forms of employment. The assessment of the socio-labor situation and the analysis of STCs in the new constituent entities of the Russian Federation are currently not being conducted.
 
Factors Determining the Socio-labor Situation in 2025
The formation of the socio-labor situation and the conflict potential in the socio-labor sphere of the Russian Federation in 2025 was primarily influenced by internal national factors, with a significant decrease in the influence of external factors, as the country adapted to the "Western sanctions." The indicators of the intensity of socio-labor relations and the number of registered STCs were determined by the situation on the labor market and the noticeable slowdown in economic growth, which was fully established in the second half of the year. In the first quarter, the number of employees at enterprises decreased to an all-time low, and many industries began to experience a severe shortage of both highly qualified and unskilled workers. As a result, employers faced increased competition for labor resources. The sectors with the most severe labor shortages were Manufacturing, Construction, Logistics, and Healthcare. To maintain production processes, employers were forced to increase the workload of existing employees, introduce new work schedules, and implement additional incentives and social support measures to retain their workforce. However, the growth rate of wages slowed down. Many employers declared that they intended to increase their employees' salaries only at the level of inflation or below. The competition for employees accelerated the flow of labor resources to sectors and regions with constant wage indexation, exacerbating the imbalances in the labor market. By the end of the year, labor market tensions had decreased and showed signs of relative stabilization, as the slowdown in economic growth reduced the need for additional personnel at enterprises, and most employers' plans for hiring new employees became moderate. The country's unemployment rate reached a new all-time low of 2.2% (according to the ILO methodology). Employers attributed the decline in economic performance in key industries to rising costs, including increased tariffs for utilities and electricity, higher prices for raw materials, limited access to credit due to the high key interest rate of the Central Bank of Russia, higher costs for fuel and lubricants, increased expenses for logistics and employee salaries, and the cancellation of several projects due to low demand for their products. To minimize risks in their production activities, the management of these enterprises focused on creating conditions for increasing labor productivity, implementing effective business process management models, increasing labor intensity, and automating workplaces. Along with hidden unemployment and growing financial problems for many businesses, the amount of overdue wages owed to employees increased by an average of four times compared to 2024. The poorly managed growth in the number of self-employed workers, who began to be more actively employed in the real sectors of the economy, also contributed to this increase.